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Math

The secretary problem: stop at 37 %

Play an optimal-stopping game with hidden candidate quality, then compare cutoff strategies with exact probabilities and Monte Carlo trials.

The secretary problem: stop at 37 % — Actual application image
Actual application image

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Play using only relative ranks among candidates already seen; absolute quality is revealed after hiring. Rejecting the last candidate hires them. Batch trials use a cutoff strategy: skip r, then take the first record. Candidates are a uniformly random permutation.

Equations used in the module
Equations
For r≥1: P(success) = (r/N) Σⱼ₌ᵣᴺ⁻¹ 1/j
For r=0: P(success)=1/N
As N→∞, optimal r/N→1/e and success probability→1/e
Only relative ranks are observed; no recall of rejected candidates

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